{
  "kind": "route",
  "format": "kosplora-route/0.2",
  "question": "How much will AI add to economic growth, and why do the estimates differ so much?",
  "move": [
    "understand",
    "decide"
  ],
  "audience": "Some economics helps. A spreadsheet and multiplication are all the arithmetic needed.",
  "time": {
    "solo": "3h45m",
    "together": "45m"
  },
  "authors": [
    {
      "name": "Bentley Moon",
      "date": "2026-10-27"
    }
  ],
  "would_change": "If a measurement of AI's effect on productivity across a whole economy were published, station 5 would set both estimates against it.",
  "standard": {
    "name": "ACM Artifact Review and Badging, version 1.1: Results Reproduced",
    "publisher": "Association for Computing Machinery",
    "date": "2020-08-24",
    "url": "https://www.acm.org/publications/policies/artifact-review-and-badging-current",
    "meets": "Someone other than the author obtains the central result from the author's own inputs. Here the result is Daron Acemoglu's estimate that AI will raise total factor productivity by about 0.66% over ten years, and the inputs are the four numbers his paper prints.",
    "checks": [
      {
        "label": "Share of all tasks that are exposed to AI and profitable to automate within ten years",
        "expected": "0.046"
      },
      {
        "label": "Average cost saving on an automated task, as a share",
        "expected": "0.144"
      },
      {
        "label": "Gain in total factor productivity over ten years, in per cent",
        "expected": "0.66"
      },
      {
        "label": "The same product with the counterpoint's four inputs, in per cent over ten years",
        "expected": "6.84"
      }
    ],
    "assessed_by": "You, against the figures printed in the paper, and then one other person who recomputes one figure from the same four inputs."
  },
  "stations": [
    {
      "type": "orient",
      "time": "20m",
      "task": "Read the paper's summary and introduction. Write down its estimate for productivity over ten years, its estimate for output, and why it calls them modest.",
      "sources": [
        {
          "title": "The Simple Macroeconomics of AI",
          "author": "Daron Acemoglu",
          "date": "2024-05",
          "url": "https://www.nber.org/papers/w32487",
          "origin": "published"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "type": "source",
      "time": "1h",
      "task": "Read section 3 of the paper, where the estimate is built. Write down its four inputs: the share of tasks exposed to AI, the share of those profitable to automate within ten years, the saving in labour costs, and the labour share it multiplies that saving by. Beside each, note the study it comes from."
    },
    {
      "type": "practice",
      "time": "40m",
      "task": "Rebuild the estimate in a spreadsheet, one multiplication to a cell, and enter your figures in the check below. Where your figure differs in the last place from the printed one, find whether the paper rounded before or after multiplying."
    },
    {
      "type": "counterpoint",
      "time": "40m",
      "task": "Read a reply that keeps the same formula and changes the inputs, and arrives at a gain about ten times larger. List each input it changes and the reason it gives. Recompute its product yourself and check the last step of its equation against its stated yearly figure.",
      "sources": [
        {
          "title": "AI and Growth: Where Do We Stand?",
          "author": "Philippe Aghion and Simon Bunel",
          "date": "2024-06",
          "url": "https://www.frbsf.org/wp-content/uploads/AI-and-Growth-Aghion-Bunel.pdf",
          "origin": "published"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "type": "make",
      "time": "40m",
      "task": "Make a one-page table: the four inputs from each paper, the result of swapping in each of the reply's inputs one at a time, and which single disagreement moves the answer most. End with one sentence on what evidence would settle that input."
    },
    {
      "type": "person",
      "time": "15m",
      "task": "Show the table to someone who studies economics and ask which input they find least believable in each paper. Write their answer beside yours."
    },
    {
      "type": "reflect",
      "time": "10m",
      "task": "Record which estimate you find more believable now, and why. Both papers leave out AI that speeds up research itself; if you want to see what that does, the interactive model below lets you change it and watch the economy respond.",
      "sources": [
        {
          "title": "GATE: An Integrated Assessment Model for AI Automation",
          "author": "Ege Erdil, Andrei Potlogea, Tamay Besiroglu, Edu Roldan, Anson Ho, Jaime Sevilla and others",
          "date": "2025-03-06",
          "url": "https://epoch.ai/gate",
          "origin": "published"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "artifact": {
    "keeps": "A one-page table setting two published estimates of AI's effect on productivity side by side, input by input, with your own recomputation, the input that moves the answer most and an economist's objection."
  },
  "exit": [
    "keep",
    "share",
    "fork",
    "correct-a-source",
    "close"
  ],
  "revisions": [
    {
      "date": "2026-10-27",
      "change": "First version.",
      "by": "Bentley Moon"
    }
  ]
}